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I manage this Web site and the following Web sites: Leslie (Blakeley) Adkins - my oldest daughter
Lori Ann Blakeley (June 20, 1985 - May 4, 2005) - my middle daughter
Evan Blakeley- my youngest child
Personal Computing: Then and Now
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The PC Evolution from the 1981 Debut of the IBM Personal Computer
to the Extended PC Era Today
From 1981-2001: 20 Years of PC Evolution
The introduction of the IBM Personal Computer (PC) in summer of 1981 marked a fundamental turning point in computing. Looking back on the eve of the PC's 20-year anniversary, it's difficult to grasp the full impact that two decades of personal computing have had on people's daily lives. It is hard to imagine life without the personal computer. In fact, one out of every three people in the world today was born in the age of the PC.
Clearly, the PC phenomenon has had a profound effect on the lives of millions of people around the world. Over its history, the PC has evolved from a "glorified typewriter" to a device that is the centerpiece of a rich, dynamic digital universe - a model in which the PC can act as the brain for many daily activities.
Intel Corporation has good reason to acknowledge this as a historic milestone. Intel microprocessors have been at the heart of the PC revolution, helping to spawn a vigorous industry, new levels of business productivity and new consumer lifestyles. From the Intel. 8088 central processing unit (CPU) that powered the original IBM PC to the Intel. Pentium. 4 processor introduced in November 2000, Intel microprocessors have been characterized by relentless technological advances and innovation. As a result, people today have more computing power at their fingertips and at less cost than anyone could have conceived of 20 years ago.
Personal Computing: Then and Now
Personal computing has undergone a remarkable transformation since its inception. The progress that the PC has made can be viewed in terms of technology and cost, but more strikingly, in light of what a PC can do for consumers today versus 20 years ago. Consider the following look at personal computing then and now.
In its first incarnation, the 1981 IBM PC base model had a monochrome monitor and no hard drive. It sported a 4.77MHz Intel 8088 CPU with 29,000 transistors, a single 5.25-inch floppy drive with 160 kilobytes of capacity, and 64 kilobytes of random access memory (RAM), expandable to 256 kilobytes.
The software was plain text-oriented and tedious to operate; it included PC-DOS, Microsoft* BASIC, VisiCalc, UCSD Pascal, CP/M-86 and Easywriter 1.0. The only sound came from a tiny on-board speaker that emitted beeps and other crude tones. The monochrome model that most early consumers of the IBM PC selected cost approximately $3,000 (U.S.) equivalent to approximately $5,700 in today's dollars. A color monitor and graphics card increased the price to $4,500 (U.S.).
By today's standards, this first PC was slow, stodgy and difficult to use. To start it, a user had to insert the operating system (OS) diskette into the floppy drive, turn on the PC, then wait while it booted and installed DOS into memory. To run software, the user removed the OS disk and inserted a program disk, such as a word processor, game or spreadsheet application.
The 1981 PC had no mouse, icons or menus for launching software. Instead of a graphical user interface (GUI), as in today's Windows* environments, a person used the keyboard to type in the exact text command to start a program, then hit the enter key. The on-screen look and feel was primitive: no windows, and no reproduction of what a page would look like. Even a modem was a novelty.
Now, fast-forward 20 years. Today, consumers can buy a PC with a state-of-the-art Pentium 4 processor with at least a 40 gigabyte (40 billion bytes) capacity hard drive, 128 megabytes (128 million bytes) of RAM, and a color monitor for under $1,200 (U.S.). They can also buy a super deluxe PC with a Pentium 4 processor, a high-resolution color monitor, and a re-writeable CD (CD-RW) drive or DVD drive for under $1,600 (U.S.). Both of these systems boast photo-realistic color graphics, animation, movie playback and exceptional stereo sound.
The Pentium 4 processor 1.7GHz core runs at a clock speed more than 300 times or 30,000 percent faster than the original PC's processor. (In other words, it runs at a rate of 1.7 billion cycles per second, compared to the 4.77 million cycles per second for the Intel 8088 processor). And, in contrast to the 29,000 transistors in the original, the Pentium 4 processor packs 42 million transistors into a space the size of a dime. The wires used to connect the transistors on this computer chip are a thousand times thinner than a human hair.
Clearly, the rate of advancements in microprocessors has been nothing short of staggering. Jeffrey Rayport, Harvard University professor, makes the following comparison of the pace of the microprocessor development to the automobile and aircraft industries: If the automotive and aircraft industries developed at the same rate as semiconductors in the past 30 years, a Rolls-Royce would cost $2.75 and get 3 million miles a gallon; and a Boeing 767 would cost $500 and circle the globe in 20 minutes on five gallons of gas (Semiconductor Industry & Business Survey, "Inside Chips," 12/18/95).
The greatest significance of this 20-year comparison is what the latest PCs empower consumers to do. Today's powerful software, running on a Pentium 4 processor-based system, makes a whole new dimension of experiences possible. For example, large color monitors, backed up by advanced graphics technology, now deliver high-resolution images for surfing the Web, editing and managing digital pictures and movies, and playing games. Moreover, a modern Pentium 4 processor-based PC has the power to support an array of wired and wireless digital devices that extend its value throughout the home and enable people to do increasingly more with computers.
Looking Back: A Bold Move Ignites an Industry
The PC industry has charted a unique trajectory over the past two decades. The introduction of the first IBM "Personal Computer" in 1981 marked the true advent of the PC age. Although individual computers (called "microcomputers") had been available earlier from companies such as Apple, Atari, Commodore and Radio Shack, the venerable IBM name lent credibility and viability to the concept of a person at home or at work having a desktop computer.
IBM did even more to validate personal computing by making the PC's technical specifications, or "design recipe," open and public. This move considered surprising at the time but breakthrough in retrospect sparked the PC revolution by enabling entrepreneurial hardware makers and software programmers to develop programs and add-on accessories for the platform. Until then, most personal computers had been closed and proprietary, severely limiting the number of companies that could become industry players.
Before the 1981 watershed, personal computers were essentially the realm of technical curiosities. They were sold and used predominately by hobbyists die-hards willing to learn how to operate them and master the software. IBM's leap of faith set an industry standard, moved PCs into the mainstream and caused PCs to be viewed seriously as tools, not toys.
Initial projections of PC sales volumes were naively modest. At a time when 10,000 units were considered huge volume, IBM expected to sell approximately 240,000 PCs in five years, according to New York Times writer John Markoff ("Looking Back at My First PC," 5/10/01). As it happened, IBM received that many orders in the first month. The 120-135 million PCs sold worldwide in 2000 by not only IBM but also Compaq, Dell, Gateway, Hewlett-Packard and other manufacturers indicate how dramatically the dynamics have changed.
The PC industry has thrived since 1981. Viewed through the lens of retrospect, the past two decades encompass four distinct evolutionary stages. Each growth phase of personal computing personal productivity enhancement, multimedia, Internet and extended PC has accrued new and expanded benefits for users.
A Decade of Personal Productivity Enhancement
The decade of computing that followed the 1981 debut of the PC is characterized as the era of personal productivity enhancement. This is despite the fact that the first IBM PCs, and the subsequent "clones" or "work alikes" that emerged as early as 1982, were often dismissed as "glorified typewriters" or "calculators on steroids" for their limited abilities. Early applications consisted of word processing for creating and editing documents, basic spreadsheets for keeping accounting ledgers, simple business and personal databases, and rudimentary educational software and games.
Anyone younger than 35 would be hard-pressed to imagine what using fledgling PCs was like. Monitors had almost exclusively monochrome screens, with eerie glowing green letters and numbers. Although color monitors were available from the beginning, they were exorbitantly expensive. Early PCs were also virtually silent. And, with no graphical interface or mouse, they were far from easy to use. A user had to type in arcane text-based commands precisely, or the PC did nothing a process best described as tiresome, demanding, unforgiving and cryptic.
As mentioned earlier, PCs were also expensive by today's yardstick. As a result, the first era of personal computing was relegated almost solely to the business sector.
Although PCs matured and improved during the 1980s, application categories remained essentially unchanged. However, by the mid- to late-1980s, desktop publishing applications (such as PageMaker) began adding to the productivity enhancement mix.
Throughout the 1980s, Intel microprocessors continued to evolve, from the original 8088 CPU selected by IBM, to the Intel 286, Intel386 and Intel486 processors. Each generation was marked by steady technological improvements, just as with hardware and software advances. The Intel386 processor, in particular, was instrumental in the industry transition to Microsoft* Windows* because it provided the horsepower needed to run the powerful operating system.
While the 1980s encompassed some key milestones and turning points, any honest assessment of the PC industry would concede that using PCs remained somewhat daunting until late into the decade. The harbingers of change were Windows* (first released in 1983), the mouse and the first stirrings of multimedia. Windows 3.0, available in 1990 and generally considered the first real GUI, was eagerly embraced for its ability to replace clunky keyboard function keys with intuitive user interaction.
The Multimedia Era
Assigning a specific date to a new stage of computing can be an arbitrary exercise. However, some industry observers note that Creative Labs' 1991 introduction of the first multimedia add-on kit for IBM PCs and clones aptly signals the point at which the PC entered the multimedia era. The add-on kit, which included a 16-bit sound card, an "exotic" 1X CD-ROM drive, software and two tiny speakers for several hundred dollars, added a new dimension of entertainment to PCs. The kit, and other multimedia upgrades spawned by its success, also provided passage to what many consider to be the golden age of PC gaming defined by such classics as Doom*.
Before long, PC manufacturers began incorporating sound cards, speakers and CD-ROM drives as standard fare, bringing a rainbow of multimedia capability to the masses. Throughout the early 1990s, PCs expanded steadily from their productivity-only orientation into multimedia-enhanced gaming, including sound and graphics, and "edutainment." Early multimedia-enhanced CD-ROM-based educational titles included Grolier's and Compton's encyclopedias. Enhanced productivity applications, such as PowerPoint* presentation software, also moved into the mainstream during this period, and the multimedia era saw the emergence of some specialty software, such as early sound-recording applications.
The multimedia era helped make PCs as ubiquitous in the home as they had been in the business world.
Intel's fifth-generation processor, the Pentium, served as the engine of the multimedia revolution.
Introduced in 1993, this processor was designed to easily incorporate "real world" data, such as speech, sound, handwriting and photographic images.
The Internet Era
The Internet era followed closely on the heels of the multimedia revolution, and to a degree, the two eras overlap. The first browsers for the World Wide Web roughly parallel the emergence of multimedia in the early 1990s. The Mosaic web browser, for example, was released in early 1993 and is widely considered pivotal in fueling interest in the Internet. But the Internet era of personal computing did not really take off until around 1994, marked by the mainstream deployment of browsers.
Netscape, more than any other industry player, sparked the explosion with its first Web browser applications. Netscape browsers proved popular with users because they replaced syntactical Internet access with intuitive, graphical Internet access. This, in turn, drove consumers to purchase and upgrade PCs, strengthening the overall industry.
The debut of other Web browsers later in the 1990s, most notably, Microsoft* Internet Explorer, continued to drive the popularity of the PC as the key Web access device on top of its productivity-enhancing and multimedia attributes. Consumers quickly embraced Internet-connected PCs as a point-and-click way to surf the world, gaining access to everything from broadcast news, to stock quotes, to reference material, to downloadable images. The rapid and global deployment of e-mail further underscores how central PCs have become in people's lives.
Intel. Pentium. II and Pentium. III processors, released in 1997 and 1999, respectively, powered PCs through this third stage of their evolution.
The Extended PC Era
The latest wave on the PC continuum coincided roughly with the turn of the century. Coined by Intel in January 2001, and endorsed by other industry leaders, the concept of the "Extended PC Era" positions the PC as the foundation of a digital universe and extends its power and versatility throughout the home environment. In this emerging model, peripherals such as personal digital assistants (PDAs), digital cameras, digital video recorders, MP3 audio players, DVD drives, CD-RW drives, scanners, e-books, PC-enhanced toys, cell phones and wireless Web tablets interrelate with the Internet-connected PC and benefit from the symbiotic relationship.
Networked seamlessly to these and other digital devices in the home, the high-performance PC serves as a control center that enables people to discover novel ways of capitalizing on its resources. Specialized appliances and entertainment devices tap the power of this base station for e-mail, Web surfing, home security, home lighting, environmental controls or other compelling usage scenarios.
The Intel Pentium 4 processor is the engine of the Extended PC era. Because it is designed for multimedia activities, Pentium 4 processor-based computers empower users to make and edit home videos, create music tracks, process images and immerse themselves in engaging 3-D environments and Internet experiences.
Conclusion: Into the Future
Today, the average desktop computer puts more computing power in the hands of consumers than the U.S. government first used to send men to the moon. Yet, PC evolution is not at a standstill after the first 20 years.
Intel founder Gordon Moore observed in 1965 that processor capacity roughly doubles every 18 months, leading to an exponential rise in computing power over relatively brief periods of time. Known as "Moore's Law," this trend has persisted and remains remarkably accurate today. Based on Moore's Law, it's reasonable to assume that silicon technology and transistor density will continue to make rapid advances, translating to new and increasingly higher-performance PCs. It's equally fair to assume that processors will become more firmly ingrained in society, not just in PCs, but also in cell phones, home appliances, cars, vending machines, traffic lights and life-saving medical devices.
By the end of this decade, experts believe PCs will have evolved by nearly another order of magnitude, going from today's high mark of 1.7 billion cycles per second to as much as 10 billion cycles per second.
Intel expects this next power leap to set the stage for a new era of computing in which, for example, PCs can listen to spoken commands and respond instantly.
Intel President and CEO Craig Barrett predict that the number of PCs with Internet access will soon reach one billion. This pending milestone points to consumers continued reliance on a connected high performance PC as the gateway to rich, multimedia Internet and entertainment experiences.
"As digital consumer devices evolve, they will migrate toward more of the PC's capabilities and blend into the PC environment, enhancing and extending the home PC," Barrett said. "In the Extended PC Era, the home PC will be tasked to do even more, and consumers will be at the center of their own Internet experiences."
* Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
** Intel, Pentium are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.