needed to view most of the images on this Web site - just a couple of clicks and you're "good to go."
Welcome
Photos of Larryblakeley
http://www.royblakeley.name/larry_blakeley/larryblakeley_photos_jpeg.htm
(Contact Info: larry at larryblakeley dot com)
Important Note: You will need to click this icon to download the free needed to view most of the images on this Web site - just a couple of clicks and you're "good to go."
I manage this Web site and the following Web sites: Leslie (Blakeley) Adkins - my oldest daughter
Lori Ann Blakeley (June 20, 1985 - May 4, 2005) - my middle daughter
Evan Blakeley- my youngest child
By 2010, European and Asian governments will lead the way toward the adoption of open-source software, and American CIOs happily climb aboard
Hyperconsolidation might not rule the day if governments and companies decide that it is too risky to become reliant upon a handful of vendors for their IT. By 2010, nervous governments in Europe and Asia could instead shift their purchasing and development dollars to open-source software. Overseas anxiety about vendor lock-in could be compounded by the fear that the single vendor will be American and might put European and Asian needs second. Many European and Asian companies might follow their governments' lead by choice and by necessity-if their governments mandate open source for communication, they will need to comply.
Such a trend could force sweeping changes in the model for buying and supporting software. It could even spur a revolt among CIOs who decide that they have had enough of the endless cycles of complex licensing agreements and upgrades on enterprise software. Instead, they could adopt the open-source licensing model and turn everything they've paid for out to the market for free.
"What if corporations say, 'We don't believe in licensing agreements anymore, and we're going to open source all our [legacy] software and distribute it for free'?" asks Paul Maeder, managing general partner of venture capital company Highland Capital Partners.
-->TIPPING POINT: In 2006, CIOs from Europe's largest manufacturing companies decide to freeze all spending on enterprise software until the vendors agree on a standard set of truly open, free integration technologies to hook their packages together.
By 2010, open-source alternatives for complex enterprise software are encroaching from all directions. Customer unhappiness, combined with the commodity threat of open source, will drive big vendors to completely revamp their sales, pricing and installation models. Some will make older versions of their software available for free and sell support to make money. New software will come with integration and upgrades included and be paid for on an as-needed basis. But some big software vendors won't be able to make the switch, and they will be swallowed up by services vendors that offer clients paid support for open source as well as proprietary software. CIOs will once again be running development shops, but this time the work will be open source as often as it is proprietary.
Under this scenario, CIOs will be architecture experts who take a hands-on role in creating cheap, standards-based infrastructure from which they will build highly customized IT-enabled business processes based on open-source standards.
"We'll see a model where you don't pay for the software but the services," says Nick Gall, senior vice president and principal analyst for Meta Group. "Open source and commoditization is a bottom-up process. It will move slowly up over the next 20 years to the top of the stack. It will be a slow, painful process for vendors."
There are patterns emerging today that could make this scenario possible. Like operating systems before them, complex enterprise software-core ERP functions and CRM-are sitting still like bunnies in an open field and make easy targets for open-source duplication. Already, small, very limited versions of open-source ERP and CRM exist. Some of the companies that have adopted them have invested in custom development projects to add functionality to the packages and have agreed to freely incorporate the new code into future releases.
A market will emerge to service these applications. Small developers will get paid by the line of code, but also for servicing and supporting the stuff they've written. If their client decides to make the code available for incorporation into the open-source package for redistribution, they will be able to sell services to other companies that adopt it. Open source will become a respectable route for startups and individual developers, and proprietary add-ons that need service will attract venture capital money to build real businesses.
Could it happen? Sure. "All you need is one good set of code out there" to act as a foundation for building the complex software systems, says Jeremy Allison, developer of Samba software. Open source avoids the biggest barrier to entering the software industry: marketing and sales. Open source needs no sales and marketing budget, only a good development leader, quality software and word of mouth for adoption. The open-source enterprise software is not free, but it is cheaper, and services vendors that install and run it for customers are happy to contribute paid developers to the cause. Innovation will flower because it will be much easier to get new projects going and to sell add-ons for existing open source. To separate the promising software from the bad, good CIOs will be in demand-and more valued-than ever.