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The future of integrated electronics is the future of electronics itself. The advantages of integration will bring about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science into many new areas.

Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers - or at least terminals connected to a central computer - automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications equipment.

In almost every case, integrated electronics has demonstrated high reliability. Even at the present level of production - low compared to that of discrete components - it offers reduced systems cost, and in many systems improved performance has been realized.

Integrated electronics will make electronic techniques more generally available throughout all of society, performing many functions that presently are done inadequately by other techniques or not done at all. The principal advantages will be lower costs and greatly simplified design - payoffs from a ready supply of low-cost functional packages.

For most applications, semiconductor integrated circuits will predominate. Semiconductor devices are the only reasonable candidates presently in existence for the active elements of integrated circuits.

Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated electronics, and the cost advantage continues to increase as the technology evolves toward the production of larger and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductor substrate.

The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will 65,000.

believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.

- "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits," Gordon E. Moore, Director, Research and Development Laboratories, Fairchild Semiconductor division of Fairchild Camera and Instrument Corporation, "Electronics," Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.

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File Name: gordon_moore19650419.pdf

Post Date: March 28, 2005 at 2:00 AM CST; 0800 GMT